By: Spectrum Securities Limited
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to announce the CPI on Dec’ 01, 2015 for the month of Nov’15. We expect CPI to rise by 2.78%YoY. In today’s report we present our forecast for Nov’15 along with outlook.
CPI to settle at 0.64%MoM in Nov’15: On monthly basis, CPI is likely to settle at 0.64%MoM as compared to -0.50%MoM during Oct’15. During the month food (~35% weight) and non-food (~65% weight) is estimated to contribute 0.40%MoM and 0.25%MoM respectively. Under food basket prices of heavy weight, fresh milk (~ 6.7% weight) and wheat (~4.2% weight) is expected to amplify by 0.16%MoM and 1.57%MoM respectively. Furthermore under food basket, low weight items which include chicken (~0.5% weight), egg (~0.5% weight), onion (~0.5% weight), potato (~0.4% weight) & tea (~ 0.8% weight) is estimated to intensify by 13.51%MoM, 8.30%MoM, 10.71%MoM, 4%MoM, and 6.35%MoM accordingly.
In non-food category POL prices (~3% weight) and transport services (~2.7% weight) are likely to grow by ~4.23%MoM and ~1%MoM respectively due to the increase in oil prices during the month.